CANZUK, CPLP, African Union, and other alliances of states: options and opportunities

Today we want to analyze CANZUK, CPLP, the African Union, Mercosur, the Gulf States, and other emerging or existing alliances of states: their real viability, the geopolitical context that drives them, and what opportunities they may offer in terms of mobility, trade, and international strategy. A guide to understanding where coalitions of states might evolve in the coming years.

Whenever global alliances and coalitions of states are at risk of falling apart, nations seek new allies or begin to rekindle old friendships. We can currently observe this with the change of government in the United States: since Trump announced that, in the event of an emergency, he would not defend NATO members that did not spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, a major reorientation is taking place. Suddenly, the EU is beginning to reassess its dependencies in terms of security policy and adjust its strategic alliances.

However, this not only affects defense policy relations, but also the economic relations of the closest allies. When the United States imposed new punitive tariffs on Canada on basic products, the outrage of its northern neighbor was enormous. Canada responded in turn with reciprocal tariffs. And, as often happens in times of political friction, ideas that had long been out of the spotlight suddenly resurface. One of these is CANZUK, a possible alliance between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK (United Kingdom). Trump has therefore indirectly contributed to promoting the idea.

Today, we want to analyze this alliance representatively for what it is: a geopolitical shift toward new or deeper alliances in supposed crises. At the same time, of course, we also want to know what opportunities these alliances offer for flag theory and what the potential is for them to actually come to fruition.

“Necessity is the mother of invention.”

When the usual paths no longer work, you have to be creative and look for new solutions. And that is precisely what is happening: CANZUK is a possible alliance that would encompass the four English-speaking countries: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The term is an acronym formed from the initials of these countries. The initiative comes mainly from the organization CANZUK International (formerly: Commonwealth Freedom of Movement Organization), which has been actively promoting this alliance since 2015.

So far, it is not an official alliance between states, but simply a political concept driven mainly by civil society initiatives, expert groups, and some political parties in the participating countries.

The idea aims to translate the historical and cultural ties of the former British territories into a modern agreement. Specifically, CANZUK aims to facilitate migration, free trade, and greater cooperation on foreign and security policy.

Many commonalities unite this potential alliance of states

In addition to a common language, the four countries share a historical heritage (e.g., membership in the Commonwealth of Nations, with the same head of state, Prince Charles) and similar legal systems. Thus, it is said that CANZUK unites countries that, in any case, share social, economic, and cultural conditions thanks to a democratic monarchy. Such narratives give the future alliance ideal legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens, especially those who regret the loss of some kind of bond (e.g., due to Brexit).

The CANZUK vision includes, above all, a free movement agreement and cooperation on tariff-free trade. However, it is broadly based on seven fundamental pillars:

Trade: removal of trade barriers and promotion of the free movement of goods and services.

• Mobility: facilitation of migration and job opportunities between countries.
• Trust: establishing and maintaining a close relationship of trust.
• Diplomacy: joint representations and coordinated foreign policy, similar to the Nordic embassy model.
• Security: joint security and defense initiatives, for example through exchange programs and joint exercises.
• Research: cooperation in science, education, and innovation.
• Sovereignty: respect for the national independence of member countries.

Unlike the European Union, no supranational structure (such as a common parliament or political union) is envisaged: cooperation would be based on mutual agreements, without undermining the national sovereignty of the participants.

In essence, a CANZUK agreement would mean that citizens of the four countries could travel, work, and live freely in the other member states without a visa, under certain conditions. Businesses would benefit from reduced trade barriers, and governments would consult more closely on defense and foreign policy. The aim is to translate existing bilateral relations into a broader multilateral framework and thus strategically leverage already similar cultural norms and values, as well as commonalities (language, legal system, monarchical heritage, etc.).

The British Empire 2.0?

Interestingly, the idea of CANZUK is actually based on something that already existed in history: before 1945, citizens of the United Kingdom and its territories (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Newfoundland, etc.) were all common “British subjects.” This was accompanied by extensive freedom of movement within the Empire, meaning that a Canadian could move to London without a visa and a Briton to Auckland, from a purely legal point of view.

However, this changed after World War II: Britain passed laws to limit immigration from Commonwealth countries that had since become independent (mainly in Asia and the Caribbean). This effectively abolished commonwealth citizenship. The fact that this idea of a new union is now emerging in modern times is actually more of a reintroduction (albeit with quite a few new features) than a completely new idea. This is one of the reasons why the term “Empire 2.0” is sometimes used in this context.

A unique geographical structure with many challenges

Another reason is that, when looking at the world map, one notices a peculiarity. Unlike alliances such as the EU, ECOWAS, or the Arab League, the CANZUK alliance is an alliance of states that could not be more scattered globally and has not emerged from regional associations. In fact, the colonial legacy is the unifying factor here.

However, when it comes to flag theory, we are faced with an interesting mind game. As in the EU, for example, to obtain a CANZUK passport, it would be essential to find the country with the easiest immigration conditions—in the case of Europeans, the UK—to secure new opportunities globally. Although, at first glance, all countries belong to the group of countries that are unattractive from a tax perspective due to their status as high-tax countries, as always, what matters here are personal needs and, above all, the flag one wants to fly and where. Undoubtedly, in this case, the focus would be more on personal freedom of movement than on tax objectives.

Is it really realistic for an alliance such as CANZUK to emerge?

The distance and different regional priorities are undeniable. New Zealand, for example, is more oriented towards the South Pacific due to its location, as is Australia, but with a greater focus on Asia, especially China. Canada is largely oriented economically toward the major powers, the United States and China; Great Britain must sort out its relationship with the EU. This context explains why CANZUK, although enthusiastically promoted by opposition politicians, has so far been treated with considerable caution by the governments in power. In addition, many details (such as social benefits in the area of migration, the recognition of professional qualifications, or common institutions) remain unclear.

Therefore, despite the geopolitical tensions in some countries, such an alliance is not expected to be formed in the near future, even if geopolitical debates continue to give rise to new scenarios.

However, what about other alliances of states that follow a similar approach? Are there efforts to create similar alliances of states?

It is important to understand that the form of alliance presented here should not be confused with purely political or economic alliances, such as BRICS, where the main focus is not so much on mobility and free trade, but rather on political positioning in a multipolar world. Nevertheless, there are a handful of comparable initiatives or already established state alliances, such as CARICOM (Caribbean Community) or Mercosur (Southern Common Market) in South America.

African Union

At the continental level, the dream of an African passport is relatively alive. In 2016, at the AU summit, a prototype of this passport was symbolically handed over to the heads of state, with the promise that it would also be issued to ordinary citizens in 2020. This has not been fulfilled, as many states were reluctant for security reasons (terrorism, uncontrolled migration).

The African Union’s Free Movement Protocol, approved in 2018, has so far only been ratified by four countries, including Rwanda, a strong supporter of the initiative. Rwanda has even taken the initiative unilaterally and, since 2018, allows visa-free entry to all Africans. Ghana, Benin, and a few other countries are also becoming increasingly open to African travelers.

But Africa is not a country, is it?

Probably nothing will change in Africa’s national borders in terms of global politics. But the vision remains that, perhaps in the 2030s, with enough political will, something like an African free movement zone will become a reality. For Flag Theory, this would be an extremely interesting field: Africa is home to several international financial and tourist centers (Mauritius, Seychelles, or Cape Verde, with special tax zones in some cases; Botswana or Namibia, with territorial taxation, etc.), which, in combination with large markets (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya), constitute a very promising combination. A person could, for example, have their tax residence in Mauritius and yet do business in Nigeria for months without any effort.

For now, this is just a pipe dream, but steps are already being taken at the regional level. For example, we have the EAC (an alliance of states in East Africa) and ECOWAS (an alliance of states in West Africa).

Both already issue passports, similar to those of the European Union, for the alliance of states. These alliances, although not yet fully mature, lay the foundations not only for regional development, but also for continental development in Africa. And for the Flag Theory, it is particularly interesting that Sierra Leone, a member of the ECOWAS alliance, has already launched a citizenship-by-investment program. If you are interested in operating in this region, a passport from the alliance would give you access to all the other members of the alliance.

Gulf States

The GCC states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are closely linked monarchies with enormous wealth from oil and gas. Since 1981, they have coordinated their economies and security.

What is less well known is that they have already implemented many internal free movement rights: since 2008, there has been a Gulf internal market that allows GCC citizens to work, purchase real estate, and receive social benefits in any member state as if they were nationals. Thus, a Saudi can, for example, take a job in the Emirates, and a Qatari can buy a vacation home in Oman, all with virtually no discrimination. Freedom of travel already exists: the visa requirement for citizens of these countries was abolished some time ago.

This integration sometimes goes unnoticed, as the Gulf States appear very restrictive to the outside world, but this only applies, as a rule, to foreigners. Within the GCC, however, there is in fact “Gulf free movement” for citizens. Work is underway to create a single Gulf digital identification system to facilitate the recognition of identity documents, as well as a tourist visa for visitors valid throughout the GCC, so that, for example, a tourist with a visa for Dubai can also travel to Saudi Arabia, which was previously impossible.

Interestingly, even foreign residents, for example in Dubai, are noticing the benefits: holders of a United Arab Emirates identity card can often travel to neighboring countries without a visa or with longer stays. This is a very positive development, especially for foreigners, as they are generally denied access to Gulf state nationality, but at least they can now move around the area more easily.

Plans for a common currency (similar to the euro) have been postponed but not completely abandoned: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain could introduce the “khaleeji” in the future, which has been discussed previously. Therefore, there could be new developments in the Gulf countries’ alliance in the future.

Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP)

An extremely interesting and also quite unique approach is that of the alliance of all Portuguese-speaking countries. This is a very special initiative, as these countries sometimes have almost nothing in common except their language and colonial legacy.

The CPLP states are not only separated by enormous cultural differences, but also by enormous distances. In total, the nine states are located on four different continents.

Portugal, Brazil, Angola, Mozambique, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, São Tomé, Equatorial Guinea, and East Timor form this often overlooked alliance of states. In 2021, the CPLP states agreed on a mobility agreement that came into force in 2023, after being ratified by all nine members. This agreement creates a legal framework in which countries make it easier for each other to obtain visas.

Specifically, this means that an Angolan citizen can obtain a residence permit in Portugal much more easily, and vice versa. For example, in 2023, Portugal began issuing CPLP residence permits online through an urgent procedure, in some cases within 72 hours for CPLP citizens arriving in the country. Thus, in December 2024, Portugal also enacted changes to its immigration legislation to make it easier for citizens of CPLP member states to obtain Portuguese residence permits. Brazilians, who traditionally emigrate to Portugal, benefit greatly from this.

At the same time, African CPLP countries such as Cape Verde and Mozambique are opening their doors to skilled Portuguese workers.

The mobility agreement is flexible: each country decides whether to grant visa-free entry or simplified residence permits. Portugal, as the most attractive member, uses it aggressively to meet the demand for skilled workers. This connection strengthens integration in the so-called “Lusophone” space and could lead in the long term to a Portuguese-speaking free movement area. Portugal and Brazil already mutually recognize university degrees, Portuguese citizens can vote in local elections in Brazil (estatuto de igualdade), and there is a permanent program for the rotation of diplomats and professors between the two countries.

Interesting scenarios for the Flag Theory, but more so for non-Europeans

The most interesting thing for Flag Theory is that it is a relatively easy way for non-Schengen passport holders to access the EU. Brazilians, for example, can live in Portugal with relative ease thanks to a special agreement and apply for Portuguese citizenship after five years. The same applies to Portuguese citizens. These provisions show that the Portuguese-speaking space is becoming increasingly permeable. This is particularly interesting now for Brazilians of Italian descent, who have recently found it considerably more difficult to access Italian citizenship.

For Schengen passport holders, this is only interesting in isolated cases, but through the CPLP, several continents can potentially be covered with a single citizenship. For example, an investor with a Portuguese passport could not only operate in the EU but could also settle relatively easily in Brazil or Angola thanks to the CPLP agreement. Or a Cape Verdean passport now allows easier access to Portugal and thus to Europe. CPLP countries are very different in terms of taxation, but it is precisely this diversity that offers scope for arbitrage if mobility is adequate.

In addition, many CPLP countries allow dual nationality (Portugal allows it, Brazil too), which facilitates multiple passport strategies. However, for Schengen passport holders, we still recommend Vanuatu citizenship for diversification. Of course, we do not recommend anything without having done it ourselves first. Here you can read: How I acquired Vanuatu citizenship in 4 weeks.

South America and Mercosur

Mercosur is the common market of South America. Full members are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, and associate states include Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. Since 2009, the Mercosur Residence Agreement has been in force, granting all citizens of member and associated states the right to move to another member state relatively easily. Unlike work visas, which are strictly limited, this agreement allows for permanent residence and the start of employment initially for a period of up to two years, but renewable and with the option of permanent residence.

The requirements are usually minimal, with no employment contract or specific qualifications required. In practice, for example, a Peruvian obtains temporary residence in Argentina or Brazil and, from that moment on, has labor rights similar to those of nationals. After two years, they can stay indefinitely.

This agreement has been signed by nine countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador), covering almost all of South America except for the small countries of Guyana, Suriname (which belongs to CARICOM, the Caribbean Community), and Venezuela, which is currently suspended. Venezuela, as a full member, also benefited from it until 2016; its membership is currently suspended, but many Venezuelans continue to use special channels.

The relevance and dynamism of all these state alliances are also reflected in the most recent agreements between Mercosur and, for example, the EU.

Latin American mobility is guaranteed

Companies in a Mercosur country can therefore recruit staff in neighboring countries with relative ease. An Argentine company, for example, can send its own staff to Brazil without having to go through a lengthy visa process, which greatly facilitates regional expansion. The expanded labor market is also an advantage for foreign companies setting up in a Mercosur country. On the other hand, there are also challenges: wage and social security systems are not harmonized; for example, a Brazilian working in Argentina pays social security contributions there and then has to transfer their rights (there are social agreements for this). Nevertheless, mobility in South America is remarkably free, which may give a future boost to the internal market.

And the region is not without interest when it comes to citizenship. South America is generally considered one of the regions where it is easiest and quickest to obtain citizenship through naturalization.

So what determines the likelihood that not only will new alliances be formed, but that they will also be successful?

The implementation of new alliances between states depends, of course, on many very individual factors. However, broadly speaking and simplifying greatly, there are some factors that favor alliances between states and promote their emergence:

• Geopolitical crises: Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine or China’s expansion accelerate regional cooperation. Necessity is the mother of invention.
• Economic complementarity: Alliances often fail due to divergent commercial interests. If this is guaranteed and the economic partners are of similar strength, the chances of success are much greater.
• Cultural homogeneity: linguistic communities (Francophonie, CPLP) are more likely to succeed due to their greater identification.

Thus, it can be seen that often when some doors close, others open. The important thing is to have an overview and classify it appropriately. We have been accumulating experience for ten years in all changes related to citizenship, taxes, investments, and emigration, and thanks to our network, we are usually one step ahead before certain changes are made public. If you are interested in diversifying your areas of life, schedule a consultation here, we will be happy to help you.